Our forecasts for 2015 proved mostly on the money (especially for stocks). For context, the S&P 500 was down very slightly for the year (0.81%) and the Nasdaq was up 5.73%. I’ve listed the 2015 stock picks and trend forecasts below and give my evaluation of how I fared on each one.
- Facebook will have a strong 2015. At the time we wrote this Facebook shares were at $75. The stock closed the year at roughly $105, a gain of 40% in a down market. Pretty good call!
- Tesla should have another good year in 2015. At the time we wrote this, Tesla shares were at $192. They closed the year at roughly $241, a gain of 25%. I’m happy with that call.
- Amazon should rebound in 2015. At the time we wrote this, Amazon was trading at $288. It closed the year at $682, a gain of 137%. Great call but still trailed my next one.
- Netflix power in the industry should increase in 2015. At the time we wrote this, Netflix was trading at $332 but subsequently split 7 for 1 making the adjusted price just over $44/share. Since it closed the year at $116 the gain was 144% making Netflix the best performer in the S&P for the year!
The average gain for these 4 stock picks was about 86%. The remaining predictions were about trends rather than stocks.
- Azure portfolio company Yik Yak, will continue to emerge as the next important social network. I also mentioned that others would copy Yik Yak and that Twitter could be impacted (Twitter stock was down in 2015). Yik Yak has continued to emerge as a powerhouse in the college arena. After attempting to copy Yik Yak, Facebook threw in the towel. In November, Business Insider ranked leading apps with the highest share of millennial users. Yik Yak was at the top of the list with 98% indicating its importance among the next generation.
- Curated Commerce will continue to emerge. This trend continued and picked up steam in 2015. Companies mentioned in last year’s post, like Honest Company, Stitchfix and Dollar Shave Club all had strong momentum and have caused traditional competitors like Gillette, Nordstrom and others to react. Additionally, Warby Parker and Bonobos also emerged as threats to older line players.
- Wearable activity will slow. I had expected Fitbit and others to be replaced by iphone apps and that still has not occurred. On the other hand, the iWatch has fallen short of expectations. This is not a surprise to me despite the hype around it. Still, this prediction was more wrong than right.
- Robotics will continue to make further inroads with products that provide value. I also highlighted drone emergence in this forecast. We have seen robotics and drones make strong strides in 2015, but regulatory hurdles remain a real issue for both consumer and B2B drone companies.
- Part-time employees and replacing people with technology will continue to be a larger part of the work force. This forecast has proven valid and is one reason why employment numbers have not bounced back as strongly as some expected from the 2008/2009 recession.
- 3D printers will be increasingly used in smaller batch and custom printing. We have seen this trend continue and even companies like Zazzle have begun to move part of their business into this arena to take advantage of their superior technology and distribution.
I also mentioned in the post that the Cleveland Cavaliers would have a much better second half of the season if LeBron remained healthy. At the time their record was 20 wins and 20 losses. This proved quite accurate as they were 33 and 9 for the rest of the season.
I’ll be making my 2016 predictions in another week or so but it may be hard to match last year!