Why the team is still a contender
My long term readers know that every so often the blog wanders into the sports arena. In doing so, I apply the same type of analysis that I do for public stocks and for VC investments to sports, and usually, basketball. Given all the turmoil that has occurred in the NBA this off-season, including the Warriors losing Durant, Iguodala, Livingston, Cousins and several other players, I thought it would be interesting to evaluate the newly changed team. Both ESPN and CBS power rankings have them 7th in the West and 11th in the NBA. I find that an overreaction as the Warriors may have beaten the Raptors if Klay Thompson not been injured, they swept Portland, and won the last 2 Rockets games without Durant. At the time this drove a lot of chatter that the team might be better off without Durant (I disagree).
But rather then compare the revised roster to last year’s, it seems more closely matched with the 2014-15 team, as that was a championship team that did not include Kevin Durant. I will make 2 key assumptions:
- Klay Thompson will return by the end of February and be as effective as he was before his injury
- The Warriors will make the playoffs despite missing Thompson for the majority of the season
It all starts with Curry
A third key assumption that has been proven over and over again is that players that come to the Warriors usually perform better as they benefit from the “Curry Effect”, namely, getting more shots without having someone closely guarding them, (The Curry Effect), resulting in an average improved shooting percentage of over 5%. In all fairness, it really is the “Curry plus Thompson Effect” as the extreme focus on preventing the two of them from taking 3 point shots is what frees up others. It helps that Curry is unselfish and readily passes the ball when he is double or triple teamed. Thompson’s passing has improved substantially but since he gets his shot off so quickly, he has less need to pass it. Last year both shot over 40% from 3 despite defensive efforts focused on preventing each of them from taking those shots.
Starting Teams: 2019-20 vs 2014-15
Curry, Thompson and Green, the heart and soul of the Warriors, all remain from the 2014-15 roster, and now are at their peaks. In the 2014-15 season when Green first became a starter, Curry was one year away from reaching his peak and Thompson was just coming into his own especially on defense. I believe each of them is better today then they were at that time. At his best, Bogut may have been better than Cauley-Stein, but by 2014 Bogut had been through a number of injuries. Last year Cauley-Stein averaged nearly double the points of 2014 Bogut (11.9 vs 6.3), took slightly more rebounds per game and was a better free throw shooter. Stein, much like Bogut, is also considered a solid pick setter and defender. Russell is someone who should benefit greatly from playing with Curry. Even without that, last season he averaged over twice as many points per game as 2014 Barnes (21.1 vs 10.1) which should take considerable pressure off Curry (and Klay when he returns). However, Barnes was a better defender in 2014 than Russell is today. I give the edge to all 5 starters on the 2019 starting team compared to the 5 that started in 2014-15.
Thompson may be the most underrated player in the league!
It’s unfortunate that Thompson was injured in game 6 of the 2019 finals as he was once again proving just how good he can be. Not only was he playing lockdown defense, but he also drove the offense in what has been referred to as a typical Klay game 6. In just 32 minutes, before getting injured, he scored 30 points on 83% effective shooting percentage (67% on 3s), went 10 for 10 on free throws, and had 5 rebounds and 2 steals. I believe Golden State, even without Durant, would have forced a game 7 if Thompson did not get injured.
It boggles my mind that one of the websites could refer to Thompson as “an average player” who did not merit a max contract. This is bordering on the ridiculous and has a lot to do with the fact that the most important measure of shooting, effective shooting percentage (where each 3 made counts as 1½ 2 point shots made) does not normally get reported (or even noticed). In Table 2, I list the top 31 scorers from last season (everyone who averaged at least 20 points per game) and rank them by effective shooting. Thompson is number 8 in effective shooting and number 3 in 3-point percentage among this group. So, if effective shooting percentage was regularly published, Thompson would show up consistently helping the perception of his value. When this is coupled with his being a third team all-defensive player (i.e., one of the top 15 defenders in the league) it appears clear that he should be considered one of the top 15 players in the league.
Table 2: Top Scorers 2018-2019 Season
6th Man 2019-20 vs 2014-15
Kevon Looney has emerged as a potential star in the works. While he may not yet be the defensive presence of Iguodala, he is getting close. His scoring per minute played was higher than Andre’s 2014-15 numbers and his rebounds per minute were more than twice as much. While Iguodala had greater presence and could run the team as well as assist others in scoring, Looney at least partly makes up for this in his ability to set screens. Looney also has a much higher effective shooting percentage (62.7% vs 54.0%) than Andre had in 2014-15. While Kevon doesn’t shoot 3s he gets many points by putting back offensive rebounds and dunking lob passes. Overall, I give the edge to Iguodala based on the Looney of last season but given Looney’s potential to improve this might be dead even in the coming one.
Rest of the Bench for the 2 teams
It is the bench that is hardest to evaluate. Unlike last year’s bench, the 2014-15 bench was quite strong which spawned the Warrior logo “Strength in Numbers”. It included quality veteran players like Leandro Barbosa, David Lee, Mareese Sprouts and Shaun Livingston, who was playing at a much higher level than last season. The four of these together averaged over 26 points per game. This coming year’s bench is much younger and more athletic. It includes Alec Burks, Glenn Robinson, Alfonzo McKinnie and Omari Spellman, plus several rookies and Jacob Evans III. The first four are all capable of scoring and are solid 3-point shooters (they could increase to well above average once with the Warriors). I expect that group, coupled with one or two of the others, to exceed the 2014-15 bench in defense…but may not have as much scoring fire power. The team is likely to give one or two of the rookies as well as Evans opportunities to earn minutes as well. The bench is an improvement over last year but may not be as strong as the 2014-15 squads.
I believe the 2019-2020 squad is better than the championship team of 2015. The starting lineup features the core 3 players who have improved since then, D’Angelo Russell who was an all-star last year, and a solid center in Willie Cauley-Stein making the edge substantial. Looney as 6th man is already giving evidence of future stardom. While he was not quite the Andre Iguodala of 2014-15, the difference is modest, and Looney continues to improve. The 2014-15 bench appears superior to that of next season, but the edge is not great as the newer group should be stronger defensively and is not far off the older group as scorers – the question will be how well they gel and how much the Curry/Klay factor improves their scoring. Finally, I think Kerr is a better coach today than he was given the last 5 years of experience.
They May Have Improved vs 2014-15, but so has the Competition
ESPN and CBS power rankings reflect the fact that multiple teams have created new “super star” two-somes:
- Lakers: Lebron and Anthony Davis
- Clippers: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
- Houston: Harden and Westbrook (in place of Chris Paul)
- Nets: Kyrie Irving and Durant
Contenders also include improving young teams like Boston, Philadelphia, Denver, and Utah plus an improved Portland squad. This makes the landscape much tougher than when the Warriors won their 2015 championship. Yet, none of these teams seem better than the Cleveland team (led by a younger LeBron, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love) the Warriors beat in 2015. So, assuming Klay returns by late February and is back to par, I believe the Warriors will remain strong contenders given the starting team with four all-stars augmented by Willie Cauley-Stein and an improving Kevon Looney as 6th man. However, it will be much tougher going in the early rounds in the playoffs, making getting to the finals longer odds than in each of the past 5 years.
- An examination of Table 2 reveals several interesting facts:
- Curry, once again is the leader among top scorers in effective shooting and the only one over 60%
- Antetokounmpo is only slightly behind despite being a very poor 3-point shooter. If he can improve his distance shooting, he may become unstoppable
- Russell Westbrook, once again, had the worst effective shooting percent of anyone who averaged 20 points or more. In fact, he was significantly below the league average. Part of the reason is despite being a very poor 3-point shooter he continues to take too many distance shots. Whereas most players find that taking 3s increases their effective shooting percent, for Westbrook it lowers it. I haven’t been able to check this, but one broadcaster stated that he has the lowest 3-point percentage of any player in history that has taken over 2500 3-point shots!
- I believe that Westbrook has a diminished chance to accumulate as many triple doubles next season as he has in the past. There is only one ball and both he and Harden tend to hold it most of the time. When Chris Paul came to the Rockets his assists per game decreased by about 15% compared to his prior 3 season average.